Ignore the market noises & invest with discipline: Current market outlook with investment strategies & recommendations

   

Hey Friends,

  Am back again on my long-term equity investing related blog at an interesting juncture.

 

     if you remember my earlier  blogs in early March ( when Trump had just come in) and early April (after he announced his so called “ reciprocal tariffs”) , I had accurately forecasted in both the blogs , that Indian market( Nifty 50) has nearly bottomed out at about 22000(Nifty 50) and going forward , it will go up in the medium and long term and will probably show 20% gains in this fiscal year (end of FY26 , March 26) , though it may have short term volatility ( inherent nature of equity markets). Markets have gone up after early March & early April (first & second blogs) ,. Nifty 50 is sitting at 24600 today (12% gains) since my earlier blogs. You could revisit those blogs at my blog site (https://indiavalueinvesting.blogspot.com). The learning is that one should ignore the market noises & short term volatility of “manic depressive” markets and invest with discipline with a long term horizon and perspective with patience & conviction.

 The Consensus Nifty projections as per analysts is about 27000 by end of FY26(March 26) – 10% upside from current levels. My projections are a bit more optimistic at about 28000 by FY26 (which means 20-22% returns in FY26 & 14% from the current levels) , provided, we don’t have any unpredictable geopolitical event like wars or any significant Trump tantrums.

 

   The Indian equity market stands at a pivotal juncture, offering a compelling narrative for long-term wealth creation. Despite some near-term headwinds from global trade tensions & geopolitical events , the domestic economic engine remains robust, setting the stage for continued growth in 2025 and 2026. This data-driven analysis provides a comprehensive outlook, including return projections and actionable investment strategies & recommendations for investors with an eye on the future.

Following are the key reasons for my optimism & projections

• Tarriff / trade war related fears have been already discounted in the prices & India on stronger wicket on tariff war – Markets have discounted Trump’s tariff tantrums and started going up globally after all the bad news were discounted in the prices. Besides good news like Trump’s backoff might come in after his meeting with Putin this week .  Though he has announced 50% tariffs on India due to Russian oil imports , its going to have a minimal 10-15 Billion $ impact on Indian exports in FY26 (0.2 to 0.3% effect on India GDP in FY26) , as India is not  a very export oriented economy like China , Japan etc  . Anyway, it’s a tactical blackmailing tactic from his side to get some gains from India in BTA negotiations in few sensitive sectors . In fact, some of the IT hardware and electronic / smart phone manufacturers from US, Europe like Apple have started planning to shift their production to India, after this tariff drama as Indian situation is definitely more predictable and friendly, when compared to China.  So , Indian economy stands to gain on certain sectors like IT hardware , electronics, automobile  etc cause of this tariff drama in long term as “China plus 1” procurement strategy will become stronger to diversify these kind of supply chain related risks

•  US & global recession fears are overblown – The fears on US recession is overblown . US economy, just like Indian economy is very resilient and proved wrong similar rumours of impending recession in last couple of years. .

• Oll prices and inflation coming down for India – Oil prices have come down from 83$ per barrel in Jan to less than 66$(20% reduction). This is going down due to US increasing its gas/ oil production to improve its reserves , OPEC increasing its Oil supply , slowdown in developed world like EU/ US and control in geopolitical situations like middle east . This will have salutary effects on big oil importers like India in terms of trade deficit reduction , stronger INR exchange prices, reduced inflation, reduced RBI rates etc. This will also improve the real GDP growth rate (Nominal growth rate minus inflation)

• RBI monetary has become very accommodative & dovish – RBI  surprised everybody positively in June by unexpectedly reducing the repo rate by 0.5%( 1% reduction YTD) & reducing CRR by 1% by year end, thereby freeing 2.5 lac crore Rs(about $30 billion) to be lent to industry and consumers by banks/NBFCs  . Besides, it has eased the tight liquidity situation by about 12 lac crore Rs (about $140 Billion, equivalent to 3.5 % of GDP ) through its OMO and Dollar-INR long term swap tools, generous dividend to government (2.8 lac cr) & reduction of CRR (2.5 lac cr) since January and is planning to infuse additional Rs 2 lac crore($24 Bil ) more later. . This is and will drive the markets up. The lower inflation projections because of lower oil/food prices and better monsoon(last year) will help RBI to reduce the repo rates lower( repo rate is forecasted to come to 5% from 5.5% now)  which will boost the credit cycle as well as stock markets up as cost of capital will come down .

•  Indian Market fairly valued now , especially large caps  

While some  pockets of Indian markets , especially small caps and mid caps are clearly over-valued , large caps(Nifty 50 companies) are fairly valued by all significant parameters - PE trailing ratios , PE forward ratios as well as Warren Buffet Valuation Golden indicator(market capillarization / GDP ratio)      

a.  As per PE trailing ratios , Indian market(Nifty 50 – large caps) is sitting at 21.6 .  Last 4 years PE average(long term) has been  22.4(Mid 2021 onwards)  .  Hence large caps(Nifty 50) is fairly valued with respect to long term averages (4% discount to long term PE)

b. As per PE 1 year Forward ratios , Indian market(Nifty 50) is at 19  . Last 5 years PE average is 19.6  . Hence we are fairly valued for large caps(3% discount to long term 1 year forward PE)

c. As per market cap / GDP ratio (Warren Buffet indicator)as per reliable data sources ,  the Indian market cap/ GDP ratio is 134%(As per Gurufocus.com).  As per this, Indian markets are over-valued (>111%) .However , this is primarily cause of Mid caps and Mini caps’ overvaluation . Large caps are fairly valued , as discussed above .

This shows that while Nifty 50(large cap companies) are fairly- valued, mid-cap and small cap are overly valued.

• Dollar upvaluation and INR devaluation coming to an end - USD Index which went up to 110 in Q1 , due to various reasons like Trump tariffs , Geopolitical situation , attractive 10  years treasury rates etc has started coming down. Its at 98 now. INR was going down due to above reasons and FIIs selling off in India to move their money to safer heavens in US . This has reversed since few months . In fact , INR has upvalued a bit . FIIs have withdrawn Rs 1.1 Lac crore from Indian markets till now(YTD) leading to lots of volatility . This  FII outflow will go down now with dollar going down a bit . These trends will be positive for India as strong and stable INR is good for FII returns and make Indian equity more attractive.  With US debt (@36 Trillion$@ 120% of US GDP) projected to go up further with Trump’s latest  financial Bill, dollar has a good potential to go further down in medium & long term. With Fed expected to reduce the Fed rate soon, Dollar will go down further. Structurally weaker dollar with make Indian equity more attractive for FIIs

• Incorrect narratives on Indian economy & corporate slowdown & Green-shoots appearing recently-  There has been a lot of narratives (seems to be herd mentality) around so called " Indian economy slow down" and "corporate earnings slow down"  . So called experts & media who influence the investing community through their narratives ignore the fact that this slow down last fiscal year(FY25 at 6.5%) was not a structural and fundamental slowdown but a seasonal one induced because of  elections in Q1 & Q2  of last Fiscal quarter( elections were in  Q1 in April to June). This led to significant reduction on Government capex & other expenditures which in turn had negative impact on private capex and earnings growth too. The GDP growth should show up better numbers (8% or more) this fiscal FY26 ( this quarter Q2 onwards) because of favourable base effect (Q1 & Q2 of FY25 having elections related slow down) , lower inflation projections at 3.1% ( as per RBI inflation projections), good monsoon driving rural economy & favourable RBI monetary & liquidity stance in reducing the interest rate(by 1%) and reducing the CRR by 1%. This will ensure that FY26 has at least 7.5% growth(6.5% in  Q1 , 8% Q2 onwards). This better GDP will translate into 10.5% Nominal GDP growth(real GDP plus inflation =7.5% + 3%) which is turn will lead to better corporate earnings (13-14% instead of current consensus estimates of 10%). In fact green shoots have already started showing up which market players have been ignoring. Manufacturing PMI in July reached a 16 month high of 59.1(anything more than 50 means expansion). Services PMI in July was at 10 months high of 60.4(has been above 60 for last 3 months). Consumer durables/ Home appliances orders jumped by 7%(YOY) in July. Similarly , mobile phones jumped by 7-8%(YOY) in July and FMCG grew by 8.6% in July.

• Size and speed matters - India still the fastest growing  major economy in the world and Foreign investors(FIIs) don’t have too many choices . 

Globally , India is still the fastest growing economy with expected GDP growth rates  , returning back to 7.5 to 8 % . With inflation of about 3.5%, this could mean a nominal growth rate of about 11% or more (nominal GDP is Real GDP plus inflation).Its the only major economy to grow at double digit Nominal GDP growth rate. India is the 4th largest economy today( we have beaten Japan this year) , contributing to about 4% of world economy &  going to beat Germany by 2027( as per IMF estimations) to become the 3rd largest economy . China , the second largest economy will grow at 4 % & US will grow at 1.5% in 2025 and EU/ Germany/Japan is almost in recession with almost nil growth rate . Can somebody afford to ignore this size of Indian economy growing at the fastest speed ( Size and speed matters) ??. In fact, FIIs started returning back to Indian markets with vengeance March/April onwards & that’s one of the reasons of 12% rise in Nifty 50 since early March. Our good friend Trump marvellously quoted recently that India is a dead economy. Just to enhance his immense knowledge & wisdom, RBI governor Mr Sanjay Malhotra recently quoted that this dead economy will contribute 18% of global economic growth  in 2025, much more than US, which will contribute 11%.

• Resilient Domestic Flows: While Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have shown some volatility, with outflows in July 2025, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) and retail investors have provided a strong counterbalance. Provisional data for August 12, 2025, showed DIIs as net buyers, absorbing the FII selling and underscoring the growing maturity of the Indian market. In July , the domestic equity MF flows went up to record of Rs 42K cr(instead of 30 K cr average) and SIP flows touched a record of 28K crore , showing the maturity and resilience  of domestic investors(DIIs and retail investors)

• Demographic dividends matter – India’s younger population with a huge proportion in working age , growing middle class with its aspirations & growing urbanization is creating a huge demand for consumption and credit, which is propelling its economy and consequently equity markets in a long term & durable growth phase . Consequently, India will become one of the top 2 economies in next 22 years( by 2047- our century of Independence) , of  25 -30 Trillion $ size (just after US economy) . China will take care of itself ( its slowing down with its primary mover real estate sector in debt crisis) and its economy getting into deflation this year( last few months have been in negative inflation) & its equity markets(China- A share) have grown about 6% only in last 6 years (since Aug  2019).

 

Market Valuations and Return Projections

The benchmark Nifty 50 index is currently trading at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 22 times its estimated FY26 earnings. This is close to its long-period average, suggesting that while the market is not cheap, it is reasonably valued, especially when factoring in the anticipated earnings growth(14-15% on average over last 15-20 years) & one of the best return on capital(ROE@14% ,only next to US at 20%) , among all the markets .

 

Return Projections:

Several leading financial institutions have put forth their projections for the Indian markets:

• JPMorgan has a "bull case scenario" with the Nifty 50 potentially reaching 30,000 by April 2026, driven by a strong earnings recovery.
• Emkay Global Research has maintained a Nifty 50 target of 26,000 for March 2026.
• Morgan Stanley has a bull case scenario for the Sensex to hit the 1,00,000 mark by June 2026(equivalent to >30,000 on Nifty)
• My projection/ estimate is Nifty 50 reaching about 28000 by FY26(March 26)

While these are projections and not guarantees, they reflect a prevailing optimism about the market's direction over the next 12 months. An annualized return in the range of 12-20% from the equity markets over this period is a reasonable expectation, contingent on stable global conditions and continued domestic economic performance.

Recommendations - High-Growth Sectors to Watch & invest

For investors looking to build a long-term portfolio, focusing on sectors with structural tailwinds is crucial. The following sectors are poised for significant growth in 2025 and 2026:

• Infrastructure and Manufacturing: With sustained government capital expenditure in infrastructure & defence, the "Make in India" initiative & PLI initiative(attracting investment of 2 lac crore in 14 sectors), companies in capital goods, construction, and defence are expected to perform well. India defence production went up by 18% in FY25 due to Govt focus on indigenization & export potential. ( reached Rs 1.5 Lac crore)
• Banking and Financial Services (BFSI): A pickup in economic activity(high GDP growth), favourable monetary & liquidity stance of RBI(RBI rate cut & CRR cut and liquidity measures) , Income tax rationalization, better monsoon and low inflation(@1.5% in July) and rising credit demand will benefit well-capitalized public and private sector banks, NBFCs and Gold finance & Insurance companies.
• Renewable power/Energy: India's ambitious target of 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030 will continue to fuel growth in green energy & renewable power companies. Even power finance companies (like PFC, REC) will do well in long term.
• E-commerce & Quick commerce : These new but rapidly growing sectors have good potential to create wealth in long term. Ecommerce already accounts for 5-6% share of total retail market in India but its still about one-third of the share in US (16%) and has a great potential . Similarly , quick commerce which started few years back also is rising rapidly.
• Consumer Discretionary: As disposable incomes rise, there is significant growth potential in sectors like tourism, hospitality, and automobiles.
• Real estate – Real estate has entered a growth cycle with rising urbanization, aspiring middle class with their housing needs & higher disposable income. Investing in real estate through equity proxies like best & consistently growing Housing finance companies and best REITs( Real Estate Investment Trust like Embassy office REIT) would be advised for diversification , asset allocation, liquidity & lower taxation purposes.
• Telecom – with improving 5G adoption , digital transformation , increased broadband/data usage, improving ARPUs(Average Revenue per user) due to tariff hikes, favourable govt policies, this sector will continue to do well & select leaders in this sector should be invested
• Healthcare & pharma – Rising affordability, health insurance, rising medical needs , lifestyle diseases, ageing population, major export potential  leads to a consistent & defensive bet.

 

Actionable Investment Strategies for sustainable Wealth Creation

A disciplined approach is paramount to navigating the equity markets successfully. Here are key recommendations for long-term investors:

1. Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs): For the majority of investors, regularly investing a fixed amount through SIPs in diversified equity mutual funds or PMS or direct equity portfolio is the most effective strategy. This approach, known as rupee cost averaging, mitigates the risk of market timing and instils financial discipline.
2. Asset Allocation is Key: Based on your risk profile and investment horizon, a balanced allocation accross asset classes - equity , debt , real estate( through housing finance & REIT) & Gold ETF is key . Gold is a strategic diversifying asset , apart from safe haven asset & has given equal or more than equity’s returns in last 10-15 years(about 12-15% returns) and one should invest 10-20% of your portfolio into Gold ETF. One should invest 10-15% in Real estate(through high quality housing Finance stocks & REITs).  I typically invest only my emergency funds (6-12 months expenses) or some funds one might need in short term(within 1 to 2 years)for urgent / family needs in debt funds. Remaining funds(about 70% or more) goes into equity for me, as it gives the best long term returns for wealth creation
3. Focus on Quality & Growth businesses: Prioritize investing in companies with strong balance sheets, consistent cash flows/ earnings, revenue/earnings visibility , great return on capitals(ROE/ROCE) and good corporate governance, available at fair or undervalued prices  in resilient and growing sectors(like few mentioned above) . Such businesses are better positioned to weather economic cycles and deliver sustainable returns. Avoid speculative bets and companies with poor earnings visibility or stretched valuations.
4. Diversification for risk mitigation - Diversify Across Growth-Driven Sectors

• Allocate majorly in blue chip large caps for now, cause of volatility and valuation reasons
• Allocate a minor portion to mid-cap and select small-cap stocks for now, especially those with strong fundamentals in sunrise sectors.
• Diversify internationally—consider partial exposure abroad to mitigate currency risks ,mainly through Index funds(like Nasdaq , S&P500 etc)
• Don’t over diversify like typical mutual funds which diversify into 30-50 companies and end up mimicking market results  . Go for high conviction bets with focussed investing , with not more than 20-25 bets / stocks in equities. This will also help you track/ review/ evaluate the businesses/ stocks better.

5. Maintain a Long-Term Horizon: Wealth creation is a marathon, not a sprint. Short-term market fluctuations are inevitable. A patient approach, with an investment horizon of at least 3-5 years or more, is essential to reap the  magic of compounding. Magic of compounding was declared as the 8^th wonder by Albert Einstein.
6. Review, Don't React: Periodically review your portfolio to ensure it remains aligned with your financial goals & targeted returns . However, avoid making impulsive decisions based on market noise or short-term news flow or short term market gyrations.

7. Adopt ‘Buy-on-Dips’

Take advantage of dips caused by broad corrections (which remain likely in 2025) to accumulate quality stocks for long term. 

Conclusion

In conclusion, the outlook for the Indian equity market for 2025 and 2026 is promising, supported by a strong domestic economy and a revival in corporate earnings. While global factors may introduce intermittent volatility, a disciplined, long-term investment strategy focused on quality , growth & adequate diversification/ asset allocation is well-positioned to generate significant wealth.

 

Happy investing

Cheers Amardeep

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